Geographic variation in seasonality and its influence on the dynamics of an infectious disease

Seasonal changes in environmental drivers - such as temperature, rainfall, and resource availability - have the potential to shape infection dynamics through their reverberating effects on biological processes including host abundance and susceptibility to infection. However, seasonality varies geographically. We therefore expect marked differences in infection dynamics between regions with different seasonal patterns. By pairing extensive Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) surveillance data - 65 358 individual bird samples from 12 species of dabbling ducks sampled at 174 locations across North America - with quantification of seasonality using remote sensed data indicative for primary productivity (normalised differenced vegetation index, NDVI), we provide evidence that seasonal dynamics influence infection dynamics across a continent. More pronounced epidemics were seen to occur in regions experiencing a higher degree of seasonality, and epidemics of lower amplitude and longer duration occurred in regions with a more protracted and lower seasonal amplitude. These results demonstrate the potential importance of geographic variation in seasonality for explaining geographic variation in the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife.

Ecological value of riparian zones to birds in forest landscapes

Riparian zones are a characteristic component of many landscapes throughout the world and increasingly are valued as key areas for biodiversity conservation. Their importance for bird communities has been well recognised in semi-arid environments and in modified landscapes where there is a marked contrast between riparian and adjacent non-riparian vegetation. The value of riparian zones in largely intact landscapes with continuous vegetation cover is less well understood. This research examined the importance of riparian habitats for avifauna conservation by investigating the ecological interactions contributing to the pattern of bird assemblages in riparian and adjacent non-riparian habitats. Specifically, the focus is on the bird assemblages of riparian zones and those of adjacent non-riparian vegetation types and the influence that associated differences in resource availabilities, habitat structure and conditions have on observed patterns. This study was conducted in the foothill forests of the Victorian Highlands, south-east Australia. Mixed-species eucalypt (genus Eucalyptus) forests dominate the vegetation of this region. Site selection was based on the occurrence of suitable riparian habitat interspersed within extensive, relatively undisturbed (i.e. no recent timber harvesting or fire events) forest mosaics. A series of 30 paired riparian and non-riparian sites were established among six stream systems in three forest areas (Bunyip State Park, Kinglake National Park and Marysville State Forest). Riparian sites were positioned alongside the stream and the non-riparian partner site was positioned on a facing slope at a distance of approximately 750 m. Bird surveys were carried out during 29 visits to each site between July 2001 and December 2002. Riparian sites were floristically distinct from non-riparian sites and had a more complex vegetation structure, including a mid-storey tree layer mostly absent from non-riparian sites, extensive fine litter and coarse woody debris, and dense ground-layer vegetation (e.g. sedges and ground ferns). The characteristic features of non-riparian habitats included a relatively dense canopy cover, a ground layer dominated by grasses and fine litter, and a high density of canopy-forming trees in the smaller size-classes. Riparian zones supported a significantly greater species richness, abundance and diversity of birds when compared to non-riparian habitats. The composition of bird assemblages differed significantly between riparian and non-riparian habitats, with riparian assemblages displaying a higher level of similarity among sites. The strongest contributors to observed dissimilarities between habitat types included species that occurred exclusively in either habitat type or species with large contrasts in abundance between habitat types. Much of the avifauna (36%) of the study area is composed of species that are common and widespread in south-east Australia (i.e. forest generalists). Riparian habitats were characterised by a suite of species more typical of wetter forest types in south-east Australia and many of these species had a restricted distribution in the forest mosaic. Some species (7%) occurred exclusively in riparian habitats (i.e. riparian selective species) while others (43%) were strongly linked to these habitats (i.e. riparian associated species). A smaller proportion of species occurred exclusively (2%) in non-riparian habitats (i.e. non-riparian selective species) or were strongly linked to these habitats (10%; i.e. non-riparian associated species). To examine the seasonal dynamics of assemblages, the variation through time in species richness, abundance and composition was compared between riparian and non-riparian sites. Riparian assemblages supported greater richness and abundance, and displayed less variation in these parameters, than non-riparian assemblages at all times. The species composition of riparian assemblages was distinct from non-riparian assemblages throughout the annual cycle. An influx of seasonal migrants elevated species richness and abundance in the forest landscape during spring and summer. The large-scale movement pattern (e.g. coastal migrant, inland migrant) adopted by migrating species was associated with their preference for riparian or non-riparian habitats in the landscape. Species which migrate north-south along the east coast of mainland Australia (i.e. coastal migrants) used riparian zones disproportionately; eight of eleven species were riparian associated species. Species which migrate north-south through inland Australia (i.e. inland migrants) were mostly associated with non-riparian habitats. The significant differences in the dynamics of community structure between riparian and non-riparian assemblages shows that there is a disproportionate use of riparian zones across the landscape and that they provide higher quality habitat for birds throughout the annual cycle. To examine the ecological mechanisms by which riparian assemblages are richer and support more individual birds, the number of ecological groups (foraging, nest-type and body mass groups) represented, and the species richness of these groups, was compared between riparian and non-riparian assemblages. The structurally complex vegetation and distinctive habitat features (e.g. aquatic environments, damp sheltered litter) provided in the riparian zone, resulted in the consistent addition of ecological groups to riparian assemblages (e.g. sheltered ground – invertebrates foraging group) compared with non-riparian assemblages. Greater species richness was accommodated in most foraging, nest-type and body mass groups in riparian than non-riparian assemblages. Riparian zones facilitated greater richness within ecological groups by providing conditions (i.e. more types of resources and greater abundance of resources) that promoted ecological segregation between ecologically similar species. For a set of commonly observed species, significant differences in their use of structural features, substrates and heights were registered between riparian and non-riparian habitats. The availability and dynamics of resources in riparian and non-riparian habitats were examined to determine if there is differential availability of particular resources, or in their temporal availability, throughout the annual cycle. Riparian zones supported more abundant and temporally reliable eucalypt flowering (i.e. nectar) than non-riparian habitats throughout the annual cycle. Riparian zones also supported an extensive loose bark resource (an important microhabitat for invertebrates) including more peeling bark and hanging bark throughout the year than at non-riparian sites. The productivity of eucalypts differed between habitat types, being higher in riparian zones at most times for all eucalypts combined, and for some species (e.g. Narrow-leaved Peppermint Eucalyptus radiata). Non-riparian habitats provided an abundant nectar resource (i.e. shrub flowering) at particular periods in the annual cycle. Birds showed clear relationships with the availability of specific food (i.e. nectar) and foraging resources (i.e. loose bark). The demonstration of a greater abundance of resources and higher primary productivity in riparian zones is consistent with the hypothesis that these linear strips that occupy only a small proportion of the landscape have a disproportionately high value for birds. Riparian zones in continuous eucalypt forest provide high quality habitats that contribute to the diversity of habitats and resources available to birds in the forest mosaic, with positive benefits for the landscape-level species pool. Despite riparian and non-riparian habitat supporting distinct assemblages of birds, strong linkages are maintained along the riparian-upslope gradient. Clearly, the maintenance of diverse and sustainable assemblages of birds in forest landscapes depends on complementary management of both riparian and non-riparian vegetation.

Temporal dynamics of oocyte development, plasma sex steroids and somatic energy reserves during seasonal ovarian maturation in captive Murray cod Maccullochella peelii peellii

The temporal dynamics of oocyte growth, plasma sex steroids and somatic energy stores were examined during a 12 month ovarian maturation cycle in captive Murray cod Maccullochella peelii peelii under simulated natural photothermal conditions. Ovarian function was found to be relatively uninhibited in captivity, with the exception that post-vitellogenic follicles failed to undergo final maturation, resulting in widespread pre-ovulatory atresia. Seasonal patterns of oocyte growth were characterised by cortical alveoli accumulation in March, deposition of lipids in April, and vitellogenesis between May and September. Two distinct batches of vitellogenic oocytes were found in Murray cod ovaries, indicating a capacity for multiple spawns. Plasma profiles of 17β-oestradiol and testosterone were both highly variable during the maturation period suggesting that multiple roles exist for these steroids during different stages of oocyte growth. Condition factor, liver size and visceral fat stores were all found to increase prior to, or during the peak phase of vitellogenic growth. Murray cod appear to strategically utilise episodes of high feeding activity to accrue energy reserves early in the reproductive cycle prior to its deployment during periods of rapid ovarian growth.

Seasonal variability in whale encounters in the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Cetacean sighting surveys were conducted as part of nine multidisciplinary research cruises over late summer, autumn and winter of 2 years (2001–2003) during the Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystems (SO GLOBEC) program. Sea-ice cover differed markedly between years, with apparent effects on cetacean distribution. No ice was present until late June in 2001, while the previous winter sea ice never fully retreated (>30% cover) during the 2002 or 2003 summer, thus increasing the proportion of thicker and more complex ice, including multi-year floes. Humpback (237 sightings; 537 individuals) and minke (103 sightings: 267 individuals) whales were the most commonly detected species. Data from seven comparable cruises were used to identify habitat for minke and humpback whales over five geographically distinct spatial divisions in the study area. In all years, both species were predominantly found in near coastal habitat, particularly in the fjords where complex habitat likely concentrated prey. In 2002 and 2003 the presence of sea ice provided additional feeding habitat, and the numbers of minkes (in winter) and humpbacks (late summer and autumn) in the area doubled compared with 2001. Humpbacks in particular were concentrated at the ice boundaries during late summer and autumn, while minke numbers increased in the winter that followed and occupied ice-covered areas along the entire shelf edge. Important resource sites for these species are mainly located in near-coastal areas and are used in all years, but when ice margins exist and intersect with resource sites they attract much larger numbers of animals due to the dynamics between sea ice and prey.

Effects of a fox removal program on small and medium-sized mammal population dynamics within the Anglesea Heathlands, Victoria

This thesis assessed the diet of foxes within the ALCOA lease area of Anglesea to determine which native and introduced species foxes were eating. Results showed that Swamp Wallaby was regularly eaten but many other mammals, birds, insects and reptiles were also consumed. The response of native mammals to seasonal fox removal was also determined.

Freshwater influences on hydrology and seagrass dynamics of intermittent estuaries

Many temperate estuaries have intermittently open and closed mouths, a feature that is often related to intermittent freshwater input. These systems, often overlooked due to their small size, can have large hydrological variability over medium-term time scales.

This variability presents potential difficulties for estuarine species particularly where anthropogenic alterations to freshwater flows can cause large deviations from natural patterns of tidal influence and inundation of habitat.

Influences of natural and hydrological variability on seagrasses were examined in two central Victorian estuaries with anthropogenically-modified but naturally-intermittent freshwater flows and mouth openings. Comparisons were focused on differences between an estuary with artificially-augmented freshwater inflow and an adjacent system, in which the volume and timing of inflows were altered by a reservoir. Eight additional estuaries in the region were also used to provide a context for these two main sites.

Hydrological changes during the three-year field component were affected by the ending of a drought and then a major flood a year later as well as by ongoing anthropogenic flow reduction and augmentation. These influences on hydrology were associated with an initially high seagrass coverage that was substantially reduced and showed signs of recovery only in the system that was affected by lower inflows. Such influences and responses also changed seasonally but to a much lesser extent than the responses to stochastic climatic events.

Natural flows were intermittent and varied substantially between years. Flooding flows represented up to 89% of the long-term annual average flow. Water quality was broadly typical of the region, with the exception of low pH in some tributaries, especially those of Anglesea estuary. Anthropogenic changes to flow were most evident at times of low natural flows and resulted in longer and more frequent periods of zero inflow to Painkalac estuary and a continual base flow to Anglesea. This base flow, from ponds containing coal ash, neutralised waters flowing from upstream and increased conductivity, except at times of high natural flow.

A three-state conceptual model of the magnitude and variability of water levels, based largely on the degree of tidal influence was identified and quantitatively assessed for the two estuaries that were the main focus of the study. These states in turn had a large influence on the area and inundation of benthic habitat. Floods tended to open the mouths of estuaries, which then remained tidal given sufficient flow to overcome sedimentary processes at the mouths. Low and zero inflow was a precondition for closure of the mouths of the estuaries. When closed, differences in inflow resulted in different endpoints in salinity patterns. From an initial pattern similar to a classic ‘salt wedge’, Painkalac estuary, with reduced inflow, quickly destratified and gradually became more saline, at times hypersaline. Anglesea estuary, with augmented flow, tended to remain stratified for longer until becoming completely fresh, given a long enough period of closure.

Episodic changes in the water quality of the estuaries were associated with different components of the freshwater flow regimes. At high flows, fresh waters of low pH with a high metal load entered Anglesea estuary. Except during the largest flood, when the estuary was completely flushed, this water was neutralised at the halocline and resulting in precipitation of metals. High flows into Painkalac were associated with elevated concentrations of clay-sourced suspended solids. During a closed period, with zero flow, a release of sediment-bound nutrients triggered by anoxia was observed in Painkalac, followed by an algal bloom.

The large decline in seagrass extent that was observed in both estuaries was closely related to floods and the subsequent reductions in potential habitat associated with the tidal states that followed. Analysis of historical patterns of extent against rainfall records suggested that periods of drought and extended mouth closures were related to establishment and expansion of beds. This model was similar to that described for South African estuaries and contrasted with more-seasonal patterns reported for local marine embayments.

Rates of in situ decomposition of seagrass detritus showed a mix of seasonal and disturbance-driven patterns of change, depending on estuary. Variability of these rates on a scale of 100s of metres was typically not significant, but there were a few episodes that were highly significant. A negative correlation between decomposition rate and seagrass extent was also observed. A novel technique for assessing cellulose decomposition potential in sediment, adapted from soil science, proved to be a useful tool for estuarine research. Results from this component of the study highlighted both small-scale variability that was inconsistent through time, and also stable differences in decomposition potential between depths and estuaries that were consistent with differences in hydrological state and salinity.

Given the relative lack of knowledge about processes in intermittent estuaries, particularly those relating to changes in freshwater inflow, results from this study will be of value both locally and for similar systems elsewhere. Locally, it is likely that flow regimes to both Anglesea and Painkalac estuaries will be reduced, following closure of the mine power station at Anglesea and due to increased demand from the reservoir above Painkalac. There is potential to manage flows from each of these sources to minimise downstream effects. Regionally, and globally, there are many intermittent estuaries in areas with Mediterranean-type climates. It has been predicted that the climates of these regions will become drier but with an increase in intensity of storm events, both of which have ramifications for flow regimes to estuaries. It is hoped that results of this study will contribute to more informed management of intermittent estuaries in the context of these likely changes.

Avian influenza infection dynamics under variable climatic conditions, viral prevalence is rainfall driven in waterfowl from temperate, south-east Australia

Understanding Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) infection dynamics in wildlife is crucial because of possible virus spill over to livestock and humans. Studies from the northern hemisphere have suggested several ecological and environmental drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds. To determine if the same drivers apply in the southern hemisphere, where more irregular environmental conditions prevail, we investigated AIV prevalence in ducks in relation to biotic and abiotic factors in south-eastern Australia. We sampled duck faeces for AIV and tested for an effect of bird numbers, rainfall anomaly, temperature anomaly and long-term ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) patterns on AIV prevalence. We demonstrate a positive long term effect of ENSO-related rainfall on AIV prevalence. We also found a more immediate response to rainfall where AIV prevalence was positively related to rainfall in the preceding 3-7 months. Additionally, for one duck species we found a positive relationship between their numbers and AIV prevalence, while prevalence was negatively or not affected by duck numbers in the remaining four species studied. In Australia largely non-seasonal rainfall patterns determine breeding opportunities and thereby influence bird numbers. Based on our findings we suggest that rainfall influences age structures within populations, producing an influx of immunologically naïve juveniles within the population, which may subsequently affect AIV infection dynamics. Our study suggests that drivers of AIV dynamics in the northern hemisphere do not have the same influence at our south-east Australian field site in the southern hemisphere due to more erratic climatological conditions.